On Becoming a Space-Faring Civilization - Richard Campbell - NDC Oslo 2024

Explore the key challenges and opportunities in becoming a space-faring species, from reduced launch costs to space manufacturing, lunar bases, and the critical role of commercial space.

Key takeaways
  • The cost of space launches has dropped dramatically - from $25,000/kg in the 1990s to around $3,000/kg with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, making space more accessible

  • Long-term human presence in space requires solving artificial gravity challenges - rotating structures ~100m in diameter are needed to create comfortable artificial gravity without harmful differentials

  • Resource extraction and manufacturing in space is essential for becoming space-faring - using lunar/asteroid resources is more practical than lifting everything from Earth

  • The moon’s Shackleton Crater at the South Pole is a key strategic location - has areas of constant sunlight for power and permanently shadowed areas with potential ice deposits

  • Space suit design remains a major challenge - current suits are fragile, hard to maintain, and limited in duration. New designs focus on external servicing and longer operational life

  • Free-fall/microgravity causes significant human health issues - including bone loss, fluid shifts, vision problems and disrupted cerebral spinal fluid flow

  • Future space stations will likely be smaller and more numerous rather than one large ISS-style station - allowing for specialized purposes like manufacturing, research, and tourism

  • Lunar lava tubes offer natural radiation protection and stable environments - could be ideal locations for early lunar bases

  • Asteroid mining could provide vast resources - particularly water, metals and materials needed for space-based manufacturing

  • Current space activities are transitioning from government to commercial operations - with companies like SpaceX revolutionizing launch costs and capabilities