Fonnesbeck & Wiecki- Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Computing with PyMC | PyData London 2024

Probabilistic programming with PyMC enables flexible modeling of complex systems, while Bayesian computing provides a powerful framework for inference and prediction.

Key takeaways
  • Probabilistic programming with PyMC allows for flexible modeling of complex systems.
  • Data engineering is a crucial step in Bayesian modeling, and missing data can impact the model’s performance.
  • The R hat statistic can be used to check for convergence of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm.
  • The posterior distribution provides a probabilistic inference of the unknown parameters.
  • The MMCMC algorithm uses multiple chains to improve the convergence and estimation of the posterior distribution.
  • The PyMC library has a variety of samplers available, including the NUTS algorithm, which is suitable for high-dimensional problems.
  • The Laplace distribution can be used as a prior distribution for variables with heavy-tailed distributions.
  • The Gaussian distribution is often used as a prior distribution for variables with normal distributions.
  • Controlling the number of iterations and the number of chains can improve the convergence and estimation of the posterior distribution.
  • The posterior distribution provides a probabilistic summary of the unknown parameters, which can be used to make predictions and make inferences about the system.
  • The PMCMC algorithm can be used for Bayesian modeling with complex systems, and it is particularly useful when the posterior distribution is difficult to sample from.
  • The NUTS algorithm can be used as a global sampler for high-dimensional problems, and it is particularly useful when the posterior distribution is multimodal.
  • PyMC provides a variety of tools and libraries for Bayesian modeling, including the PyMC library and the RVs library.
  • Bayesian modeling with PyMC provides a flexible and powerful framework for analyzing complex systems, and it can be used for a wide range of applications, including marketing, finance, and healthcare.
  • The PyMC library provides a variety of tools and libraries for Bayesian modeling, including the PMCMC algorithm, the NUTS algorithm, and the Laplace distribution.
  • The RVs library provides a variety of tools and libraries for Bayesian modeling, including the RVs library and the PyMC library.
  • Bayesian modeling with PyMC provides a flexible and powerful framework for analyzing complex systems, and it can be used for a wide range of applications, including marketing, finance, and healthcare.
  • The PMCMC algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters of a complex system, and it can be used to make predictions about the system.
  • The NUTS algorithm can be used as a global sampler for high-dimensional problems, and it can be used to estimate the parameters of a complex system.
  • The Laplace distribution can be used as a prior distribution for variables with heavy-tailed distributions, and it can be used to estimate the parameters of a complex system.
  • The PyMC library provides a variety of tools and libraries for Bayesian modeling, including the PMCMC algorithm, the NUTS algorithm, and the Laplace distribution.
  • Bayesian modeling with PyMC provides a flexible and powerful framework for analyzing complex systems, and it can be used for a wide range of applications, including marketing, finance, and healthcare.