Stop rolling the dice: an approach to effort estimation in software development by Luca Camerini

Estimate effort, not time, with a data-driven approach to software development estimation, considering parallelization, resource allocation, and uncontrollable factors, and leveraging tools and methods to support human judgment.

Key takeaways
  • Estimate effort, not time
  • Individual mandates for activities, not linear approach
  • Consider parallelization and resource allocation
  • Decision-making process for estimation, not just guessing
  • Pay attention to associated costs
  • Understand that estimation is complex due to interactions and uncontrollable factors
  • Mapping skills and efforts is crucial
  • Consider non-linear correlation between resource numerosity and velocity
  • Tool helps run estimation, provides guidelines and reminders
  • Don’t underestimate the importance of estimation being a decision-making process
  • Be aware of common mistakes and limitations
  • Communication and sharing are key to successful estimation
  • Tools and methods can help, but not replace human judgment
  • Reflect on own experiences and adjust estimation accordingly